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UNCERTAINTY IN INTEGRATED LAND USE-TRANSPORT MODELS: SIMULATION & PROPAGATION.
| 题名： | UNCERTAINTY IN INTEGRATED LAND USE-TRANSPORT MODELS: SIMULATION & PROPAGATION. |
| 作者： | Krishnamurthy-S; Kockelman-K |
| 关键词： | Land-use-models; Monte-Carlo-method; Simulation-; Transportation-planning; Travel-behavior; Travel-demand; Travel-patterns; Trip-generation; Trip-purpose; Uncertainty- |
| 摘要： | This report examines the propagation of uncertainty in outputs of a standard integrated model of transportation and land use. Austin-calibrated DRAM-EMPAL predictions of residence and work locations are used as inputs to a 4-step travel demand model, and the resulting travel times are fed forward into the future period's land use models. Covariance in inputs was accommodated through multivariate Monte Carlo sampling of 200 scenarios. Variances in land use and travel predictions were then analyzed, over time, and as a function of input values. Results indicate that output variations were most sensitive to the exponent of the link performance function, the split of trips between peak and off-peak, and several trip generation and attraction rates. 20 years in the future, final uncertainty levels due solely to input and parameter estimation errors are on the order of 38% for total regional peak-period VMT, 45% for peak-period flows, and 50% and 37% for residential and employment densities, respectively. |
| 总页数： | 2002/09. pp23 (1 Fig., 6 Tab., Refs.) |
| 报告类型： | 科技报告 |
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