原文传递
Pitfalls and Precautions When Using Predicted Failure Data for Quantitative Analysis of Safety Risk for Human Rated Launch Vehicles.
| 题名： | Pitfalls and Precautions When Using Predicted Failure Data for Quantitative Analysis of Safety Risk for Human Rated Launch Vehicles. |
| 作者： | Hatfield, G. S.; Hark, F.; Stott, J. |
| 关键词： | Accident prevention, Launch vehicles, Probability theory, Quantitative analysis, Safety factors, Decision making, Reliability analysis, Failure analysis, Performance prediction, Risk, Failure, Manufacturing, Aerospace engineering |
| 摘要： | Launch vehicle reliability analysis is largely dependent upon using predicted failure rates from data sources such as MIL-HDBK-217F. Reliability prediction methodologies based on component data do not take into account risks attributable to manufacturing, assembly, and process controls. These sources often dominate component level reliability or risk of failure probability. While consequences of failure is often understood in assessing risk, using predicted values in a risk model to estimate the probability of occurrence will likely underestimate the risk. Managers and decision makers often use the probability of occurrence in determining whether to accept the risk or require a design modification. Due to the absence of system level test and operational data inherent in aerospace applications, the actual risk threshold for acceptance may not be appropriately characterized for decision making purposes. This paper will establish a method and approach to identify the pitfalls and precautions of accepting risk based solely upon predicted failure data. This approach will provide a set of guidelines that may be useful to arrive at a more realistic quantification of risk prior to acceptance by a program. |
| 总页数： | Hatfield, G. S.; Hark, F.; Stott, J. |
| 报告类型： | 科技报告 |
相关文献
- Risk Analysis of Autonomous Vehicles in Mixed Traffic Streams
- Failure Modes and Effects Analysis for Hydrogen Fueling Options.
- ANALYSIS OF DRIVER SAFETY PERFORMANCE USING SAFETY STATE MODEL.
- Failure Predictions of Out-of-Autoclave Sandwich Joints with Delaminations Under Flexure Loads.
- Failure Predictions of Out-of-Autoclave Sandwich Joints with Delaminations under Flexure Loads.
- Quantitative Modeling of Failure Propagation in Intelligent Transportation Systems.
检索历史
应用推荐
