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Statewide Travel Forecasting Models
| 题名： | Statewide Travel Forecasting Models |
| 作者： | Horowitz, A. |
| 关键词： | Travel demand##Forecasting##State planning##Guidelines##Trends##Traffic volume##Passenger transportation##Freight transportation## |
| 摘要： | Statewide travel forecasting models attempt to meet some of the same goals for statewide transportation planning that urban travel forecasting models have met for urban transportation planning. The earliest experiments in statewide travel forecasting in the 1970s adapted methods that had been developed specifically for urban travel forecasting; however, those early statewide modeling efforts were severely hampered because of difficulties in adequately covering large geographic areas in sufficient detail. In the past 10 years statewide transportation planners have seen dramatic improvements in socioeconomic and network databases, tools for accessing these databases, and computational power. Consequently, interest in fully capable statewide travel forecasting models has steadily increased. Each succeeding generation of models within a state has become more ambitious. Approximately one-half of the states now have functional models. This synthesis is particularly directed toward those states that want to develop a model from scratch and those states that are interested in upgrading their existing models. The core of this synthesis is the results of surveys received from every state that has a statewide travel forecasting model. Information about modeling activities was provided by 49 states returning at least one questionnaire. The responses to the synthesis questionnaires, along with those from an earlier questionnaire distributed by the TRB Statewide Travel Demand Models Peer Exchange in 2004, allow for a general assessment of the state of the practice. The questionnaires focused on individual components of the models and the modeling process. To achieve a better understanding of how all the pieces fit together, five case studies are presented to provide a broader overview. Two of the case studies, Indiana and Kentucky, deal specifically with passenger components. Two other case studies, Virginia and Wisconsin, cover freight components. One additional case study from Ohio explores a newer approach to statewide models that integrates the traditional passenger and freight components with forecasts of economic activity and land use that had been pioneered in Oregon. In addition, several states were asked to expand on their questionnaire responses with regard to how statewide models have been successfully applied. |
| 总页数： | 130 |
| 报告类型： | 科技报告 |
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