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California's 2050 Transportation Context: A Response to Global Warming and Executive Order #S-3-05

项目名称：	California's 2050 Transportation Context: A Response to Global Warming and Executive Order #S-3-05
摘要：	Reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the transportation sector is a vital part of a coherent global warming response. In order to develop sensible responses, California policy-makers need to understand how the conditions affecting the movement of people and goods will change in the long-term future. Executive Order #S-3-05 calls for California GHG emissions in 2050 to be 80% below 1990 levels. This is a tremendous challenge to the transportation sector. California's responses are made difficult by the lack of information about likely market conditions, technological innovation, and the Federal regulatory conditions in the 2050 time frame. This project will provide research that begins to address these questions and leads to a second proposed phase for a Delphi panel that will provide the best predictions of the transportation sector's future carbon footprint. The project will examine trends in (i) transportation economics (e.g., carbon based fuel costs, vehicle technology, congestion impacts, trade), (ii) technological innovation that affect the vehicle fleet and travel demand, and (iii) the evolving Federal and international regulatory framework (e.g., possible carbon based fuel taxes, transportation pricing, investment strategies, etc). For this seed grant, information would be developed through a preliminary literature review that will frame the issues and the focus of the proposed subsequent Delphi panel. A Delphi panel is an iterative prediction process that will help transportation, energy, and policy experts converge on consensus predictions about the future. The Delphi panel is the best technique for generating predictions of future events where there is a great uncertainty. Although specific technical assessments may exist concerning specific trends, no comprehensive assessment is available. The development of California policies to achieve compliance with the Executive Order requires the best available predictions of the context for future GHG emissions reduction strategies.
状态：	Completed
资金：	5000.00
资助组织：	Research and Innovative Technology Administration<==>California Department of Transportation
项目负责人：	Thornton, Rusty
执行机构：	California State Polytechnic University, Pomona
开始时间：	20070601
实际结束时间：	20080531
主题领域：	Administration and Management；Highways；Planning and Forecasting；Policy；I15: Environment