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原文传递 Impact of COVID-19 On Commuters’ Mode Choice Behavior: Discrete and Integrated Choice Latent Variable Approach

论文题名：	Impact of COVID-19 On Commuters’ Mode Choice Behavior: Discrete and Integrated Choice Latent Variable Approach
关键词：	COVID-19;StatedPreferenceSurvey;DiscreteChoiceModel;HybridChoiceModel;Perception
摘要：	Fear of COVID-19 infection has influenced individuals’ decisions on making travel choices. COVID-19 has had a negative impact on society’s economic, organizational and social aspects, leading to dramatic changes in response. Consequently, a noticeable change is seen in travel behavior. This study mainly focuses on commuters’ mode choice behavior, considering work trips as the riskiest, since commuters are more exposed to the coronavirus because of regular and peak hour movement. As such, our investigation has targeted daily work trips. Stated Preference (SP) data are collected in four cities: Dalian, Shijiazhuang, Beijing and Shanghai, simultaneously, between 1 and 24 June 2021 via an online platform. 　　Firstly, in addition to usual practice of taking sociodemographic and travel characteristics in travel behavior studies, this studyalso analyzes the effect of safetyregulations on commuters’ mode choice using Multinomial logit (MNL) and Mixed logit (ML) models. The goodness- of-fit indicators of the ML model shows that it outperforms the MNL model. Results indicate generic variable in-vehicle travel time is significantly negative, the male owning car before and during COVID-19 is significantly opt into car mode, while all sort of individuals are significantly negative on commuting via subway/metro taking the bus as reference mode. Interestingly, on either enforcing or relaxing the mandatory use of the mask on bus and metro commuters prefer metro to bus. 　　Secondly, we have developed a Hybrid Choice Model (HCM) to examine the effect of different sociodemographic characteristics, travel attributes and latent constructs (satisfaction, safety and discomfort) on mode choice during the pandemic. Results indicate that individual characteristics such as age, profession, income level, education level, car and driving license ownership significantly govern peoples’ perceptions of satisfaction, safety and discomfort; and mode choice behavior is also directly associated with sociodemographic characteristics travel characteristicsandlatent constructs. It is observedthat educationlevel, occupationsubcategory-staff, and car ownership before and during COVID-19 are significant with chosen modes. Similarly, gender is only found significant with private cars, whilst income level, occupation subcategory- others have a significant association only with subway. Specifically, perception of safety has a significant negative impact on car users, discomfort is significantly positive with metro, whilst private mode work commuters are significantly satisfied.
作者：	Krishna Bhattarai
专业：	Transportation Planning and Management
导师：	Shengchuan Zhao
授予学位：	硕士
授予学位单位：	大连理工大学
学位年度：	2022