摘要: |
Prerequisites for CBA with Samgods. Trafikverket use Samgods for description of the present situation, and for forecasts of freight transport in Sweden, but it is also of great importance to enable policy analysis and CBA (cost benefit analysis). The possibilities for using the existing model to make such analyses is somewhat unclear, in part because the existing cost-minimizing model does not take into account factors other than the estimated logistics costs, access to industrial rail tracks and docks and rail capacity constraints. Another factor is that the model solutions at the local and regional level may undergo considerable, unexpected, changes even for small changes in input data. With this background a project is proposed to analyse the situation from various perspectives suggested. These encompass: 1. To list CBA relevant components in Samgods (compare to passenger traffic Samkalk model); 2. Describe how these components can be incorporated in a CBA (both existing and non-existing components). The input data quality is important to consider; 3. It is important to describe how cost parameters etc are used for calibration and their impact when evaluating the results with uncalibrated so called ASEK values (i e best available estimated parameters); 4. Uncertainty in input data and their impact on the model behavior and on the results are important to consider, in particular the consequences of using a cost minimizing model with assumed known costs; 5. Trafikverket wants an analysis of how a CBA for Samgods can be integrated with other transport models used and associated CBA-calculations. Based on the analysis according to the above outline, the study will suggest a way forward for CBA based on Samgods results. |